Market Signals
60% growth in crop production. According to a new report by BCG on soil health, crop production must grow by 60% by 2050 to meet the demands of a growing population.
$6 billion raised across 793 deals. An overview of the Agtech VC ecosystem counted 793 deals in 2024, primarily driven by precision ag and ag biotech, which secured $2.1 billion and $2.0 billion in funding, respectively. The $6 billion across 793 deals in 2024 represents a gradual decline from the peak years of 2021 and 2022, but more than 2x growth in both deal value and deal volume for the sector since 2019.
26 U.S. states. 26 states have proposed bans on artificial food dyes linked to behavioral problems.
4 billion pounds of U.S.-grown commodities. USAID’s food-aid program sourced over 4 billion pounds of grains, soybeans, lentils, rice, and other staples from American farmers in 2022, amounting to $1.8 billion.
Portfolio Spotlight: The Company Transforming Crop Protection
Over the last few editions of the GuidePost, we’ve looked at the macro picture of food system investing—from mapping the opportunity space to analyzing the characteristics of Agtech exits.
This month, we’re zooming in to profile one company in our portfolio: Ascribe Bioscience.
Ascribe Bioscience is a New York-based agtech company that develops natural, non-toxic crop protection solutions by harnessing small molecules from the soil microbiome.
Its flagship product, Phytalix, combats diseases in plants by strengthening their immune systems, enabling farmers to grow more resilient crops and increase yields. What makes Phytalix compelling is how it tackles the three main barriers to adopting bio fungicides in row crop markets: cost, efficacy, and compatibility.
We invested in Ascribe in its seed round in 2021 with a thesis that demand for their products would grow as the industry seeks better, safer, more environmentally friendly crop protection. The addressable market is substantial if farmers can increase yields while reducing their dependence on chemical fungicides.
We have been impressed by Jay, Gabriel, and the team from day one. They’ve proven themselves to be efficient and savvy operators.
New Results From Field Trials
Earlier this month, their field trials in India revealed that Phytalix is a safe and effective way to protect rice against Bacterial Leaf Blight (BLB). The research, conducted by a third-party firm, AgReveal, found that Phytalix outperformed existing alternatives and increased yields by up to 2 tons per hectare for rice—the world’s most consumed staple, which provides 20% of global daily calories.
Here are key findings from their press release:
83% reduction in BLB severity, outperforming currently available treatments by over 20%.
Up to 30% yield increase in trial sites with high BLB pressure.
Average 13% yield increase from Phytalix across all trial sites, including sites impacted by other rice diseases like Sheath Blight or Rice Blast.
100% compatibility with the existing practices of both smallholder farmers and large-scale production.
Srinivas Veeranki, Managing Director of AgReveal, said the results were “a major step forward for farmers and global food security, offering effective and long-lasting disease control while also making rice production more resilient to growing environmental and market challenges.”
What’s ahead for Ascribe
Ascribe is awaiting regulatory approval in Brazil, the world’s largest market for plant disease control products like Phytalix. The team expects government approval in Brazil later this year.
In preparation for the Brazil launch and continued expansion, the Ascribe team plans to raise a Series A in 2025. This will transition the company from a lean R&D-focused team to one designed to capitalize on its commercial traction with more robust sales and growth infrastructure.
Ascribe is just one example of the many companies in our portfolio poised for a breakout year in 2025. For more on Ascribe, check out a Forbes article published earlier this month that profiles the company and its recent traction.
Founder Fundamentals
0-$5M: When, Who, and How to Make Your First Sales Hire. Few roles are as important in the success of an early-stage company as the first sales hire. But in our experience, it’s so easy to get it wrong: hire too early, hire the wrong person, optimize for the wrong metrics. An article in First Round Review broke down the signals it’s time to hire and a framework to use when determining whom to hire. Here are two takeaways we liked:
You know it’s the right time if you have a) at least a dozen customers, and 2) a repeatable sales process.
You should prioritize candidates with early-stage startup experience and know your specific sales motion with industry expertise.
Portfolio Updates
Avalo raised an $11 million Series A and entered into a partnership with Coca-Cola to futureproof its sugarcane supply chain and reduce scope 3 emissions.
Edacious and Trailhead Capital were mentioned in an AgFunder News article about the inflection points in consumer adoption of regenerative agriculture.
Index Biosystems announced that it just closed an oversubscribed $5M round.
After closing its Series A, SWARM Engineering appointed AI & automation executive Shail Khiyara as CEO and former Google AI leader Joe Intrakamhang as CTO.
What We’re Reading (& Listening to)
Agtech Companies Brace For Tariff Impact. Tariffs on key imports like machinery, fertilizers, and electronic components are expected to drive up operational costs, forcing companies to consider domestic alternatives or adjust pricing. Potash prices alone could surge by over $100 per ton. iGrow News
After 10,000 Years, Let’s Bury The Plow. Modern, mechanized tillage has become an ecological disaster. No-till farming reduces the need for fertilizers and pesticides and promotes soil health and biodiversity. The Washington Post.
A Cautionary AgTech Tale. Larry Ellison’s half-billion-dollar quest to change farming has been a bust. There are lessons for all builders here: agricultural expertise matters as much as tech expertise; tech solutions must be tailored to specific agricultural environments; and infrastructure basics (like reliable power and connectivity) must be established before implementing advanced technology. Wall Street Journal.
The Unexpected Coalition of Nutritionists, Mushroom Shamans, and Moms. The movement to “Make America Healthy Again” is changing how we think about food, nutrition, and medicine. Video: The Free Press live conversation.
$1.6 Billion Placed Under Natural Capital Risk Assessment. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which oversees $1.6 trillion in assets—has placed 96% of their portfolio under natural capital risk assessment. It represents a recognition that every financial asset on earth faces imminent repricing based on its relationship to natural systems. Illuminem.
Trailhead In The News
Our Managing Partner, Mark Lewis, joined the Food Talk podcast with Dani Nierenberg to discuss what Agtech investors can learn from the renewable energy sector and the proof to demonstrate the social, environmental, and economic benefits of regenerative farming. Listen here.
Sarah Hovde and Nick Schroer from our team were featured in a Q&A substack article from Third Nature.
The Trailhead Jobs Board
Trailhead’s 29 portfolio companies are hiring for 29 jobs. Check out the roles on the Trailhead Job Board.